When a sector gets as hot as web video is today, it’s not unusual for over-exuberant executives to start playing fast-and-loose with claims about their site/content/channel/technology’s place in the world.  Reminiscent of the exaggerations of the late 90’s when “hits” were touted in lieu of the more appropriate “page views” or “unique visitors”, there is no shortage of claims about traffic, referrals, viewings, etc. by those who are hoping to boost their standing as they suffer from YouTube-envy.

The difference between the roaring 90’s and now, though, is that there is much more real data floating around…and a blogosphere ready, willing and able to challenge sloppy claims.

Case in point is the claim by NewsCorp COO Peter Chermin that most of YouTube’s video viewings are direct referrals from MySpace (remember that NewsCorp owns MySpace).  Chermin is trying to say that MySpace’s traffic can be the foundation of a variety of applications that can complete successfully with the likes of YouTube and Photobucket based solely on shifting MySpace referrals to new NewsCorp-created properties.  This is echoed in the NewsCorp Annual Report for 2006:

“MySpace is a major driver of traffic to the so-called ‘Internet 2.0’ sites – picture-hosting sites like Photobucket and video repositories like YouTube. There is no reason why we can’t replicate that functionality and retain that traffic – and its attendant revenue.”  (NewsCorp 2006 Annual Report)

Enter the powerful combination of “quants”, armed with data…and the blogosphere.  The quants are from Compete, a brand-new company which is dedicated to probing the fascinating world of web traffic flows.  And the Compete data shows, in a new blog posting this morning, that Chermin’s claims are probably vastly overblown.  The post and its charts make interesting reading, but here’s the bottom line:

During the month of Chermin’s statement, we actually saw that only 10% of YouTube’s traffic came from MySpace, a slight decrease from previous months.

MySpace, of course, does not need to exaggerate.  MySpace, after all, has an incredibly strong market position.  But this stands as a cautionary tale that we can’t always take claims at face value, even when they come from industry leaders.  And we’re reminded of the power of data and the intellectually curious…and the fascinating new role they play in the age of the blog.